By Hockey Guru and Spezzal Teams Playa
As is our custom, the Guru and I have each submitted our itemized predictions for the upcoming hockey season. This year, not only did we each try to guess the exact order of the final standings, but in these waning days of the Summer of '09, I will also attempt to predict the outcome of every playoff series in the Spring/Summer of 2010.
You may recall that we had updated our playoff predictions back in April, so look for us to make some more informed picks next Spring. Think of these playoff picks as my long-term forecast, which is always less accurate, but more revealing of my personal biases.
But before we get to who I think will win the Cup, let's take a look at my regular season predictions:
2010 Final Standings
Eastern Conference
1. Montreal
2. Pittsburgh
3. Washington
4. New York Rangers
5. Boston
6. Ottawa
7. Carolina
8. Philadelphia
9. New Jersey
10. Buffalo
11. Toronto
12. Tampa Bay
13. New York Islanders
14. Atlanta
15. Florida
Western Conference
1. San Jose
2. Chicago
3. Calgary
4. Detroit
5. Anaheim
6. Vancouver
7. Minnesota
8. Los Angeles
9. Nashville
10. Dallas
11. Columbus
12. St. Louis
13. Edmonton
14. Phoenix
15. Colorado
And with that, I'll hand the mic over to the Guru.
Thanks, STP. I won't be making my playoff picks yet, but I will see your regular season picks and raise you some maths.
In an attempt to put a twist on the pre-season prognostications, the Guru is assigning percentages as far as likelihood of making the playoffs. Since 8 teams make the playoffs in each conference, the total percentage allocated = 800% (i.e. 8 "locks" = 8 teams at 100% each)
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia Flyers: 100%
Pittsburgh Penguins: 99%
Washington Capitals: 98%
Boston Bruins: 80%
Tampa Bay Lightning: 52%
Florida Panthers: 51%
New Jersey Devils: 47%
Buffalo Sabres: 45%
Carolina Hurricanes: 44%
New York Rangers: 39%
Toronto Maple Leafs: 38%
Ottawa Senators: 35%
Atlanta Thrashers: 27%
Montreal Canadiens: 25%
New York Islanders: 20%
Western Conference
San Jose Sharks 100%
Detroit Red Wings 99%
Vancouver Canucks: 95%
Chicago Blackhawks: 90%
Calgary Flames: 85%
Anaheim Ducks: 70%
Columbus Bluejackets: 60%
St. Louis Blues: 56%
Los Angeles Kings: 40%
Phoenix Coyotes: 33%
Minnesota Wild: 26%
Edmonton Oilers: 25%
Nashville Predators: 16%
Dallas Stars: 5%
Colorado Avalanche: 0%
Not sure if this is even interesting to me, after completing it, but I'm going to post it in case anybody finds this remotely interesting and perhaps some discussion can ensue in the Comments section.
Obviously I'm not too high on Dallas this year (to say nothing of Colorado). But the point I think I'm making is that in today's NHL there aren't a lot of surprises. Only a few teams missing the playoffs would really shock me and reasonable arguments can be made for pretty much every team that they will be in the playoffs this year.
Injuries will definitely play a part.
If a couple teams rank way higher or lower than you expect, drop me a line and we'll break it down, Ottawa Hockey League style. Back to you, STP.
Thanks, Guru.
Damn, I wish I had thought of that. I loves me some maths. Oh well. I'll steal that idea for baseball season. Meanwhile, here are my playoff predictions, as promised:
Conference Quarterfinals
(8) Phi def. (1) Mtl
(7) Car def. (2) Pit
(6) Otw def. (3) Wsh
(4) NYR def. (5) Bos
(1) SJ def. (8) LA
(2) Chi def. (7) Min
(6) Vcr def. (3) Cal
(5) Anh def. (4) Det
Conference Semifinals
(8) Phi def. (4) NYR
(6) Otw def. (7) Car
(6) Vcr def. (1) SJ
(2) Chi def. (5) Anh
Conference Finals
(6) Otw def. (8) Phi
(2) Chi def. (6) Vcr
And the Stanley Cup Finals will be over in 5 games, with the Hawks ending the league's longest drought (which will seem far less impressive when the Cubs win the World Series four months later).
