Carnac the Guru: I Believe History Will Be Made

By Hockey Guru


I think Jerry Reed said it best, back in 1971, with:



The Guru's forecasting this weekend was outstanding!

But have no fear, through the magic of the internet, the method for performing the self-congratulatory action without injury has been found and these daily updates should continue uninterrupted through the awarding of the Lord Stanley's Cup.

The Eastern Conference Finals could be determined Monday night, if Boston and Pittsburgh can close out their series.

Will it happen?

The NHL's marketing theme in this year's playoffs is that History Will Be Made. That theme has worked itself into the Guru's subconscious, as you will see in this installment of Carnac the Guru.

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And what could be more historic than a comeback from a 3-0 series deficit?



Certainly nobody recalls the Red Sox rallying from that hole against the NY Yankees!

In reality, there have been over 220 times in the NHL, NBA and MLB combined where teams took the first three games of the series. Statistically, if every series were actually a coin-flip (or 50-50 chance for each team in every game) - the odds of a comeback and winning four in a row would show that the statistical probability of that comeback would be: 6.25% and with over 200 opportunities - there should be about 12 of these "historic" comebacks.

There aren't. In addition to the greatest comeback ever in 2004 - the other two times both happened in the NHL. The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs came back against Detroit and the 1975 Islanders performed the feat against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

If the Flyers were to comeback against the Bruins this year and make history, their comeback wouldn't be as impressive as the Islanders' 1975 comeback - but it would be pretty similar.

In 1975, in losing the first 3 games, the Islanders did not have a lead EVER in the series. In fact Pittsburgh led for 85% of the time. (Only tied for a total of 26 minutes and 41 seconds). Elaboration on the "greatest comebacks" in history should be read and won't be rehashed here.

The NHL has assured us that this will be the year that history will be made. The Flyers are gaining momentum and the Bruins "luck" appears to be running out. The Bruins have been perfect on home ice winning all five games - if only by a total of 5 goals (2 in OT). The run at home ends tonight. The Flyers will take Game 5 with a 3-2 victory.

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Tonight the fans of hockey get screwed by the Boston-Montreal rivalry - as neither team was willing to change their start time to either 7:30 or 8:00 to allow for staggered viewing or at least an extra hour of hockey.

This is a night for DVR hockey - which means to DVR both games and alternate watching about 5 minutes of hockey from Boston then 5 minutes from Montreal. If more experienced, try about 2 minutes at a time to avoid unwanted updates. Alternatively, the dual television approach can work also.

Pittsburgh has the formula for beating Montreal - DON'T OUTSHOOT THEM - and don't get to 35 shots on net. Firing the pucks on Halak from everywhere is like getting a Mogwai wet or feeding a gremlin after midnight - you're asking for trouble!



The Penguins will play a defensive and opportunistic game forcing Montreal to carry the play and take advantage of the inevitable mistakes that will come. As expected by many - the underestimation of the Canadiens is happening again and the Guru predicts that the Penguins open up a close low-scoring game in the third period to finish with a 4-1 victory.

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