Thursday, June 10, 2010

The Guru Report: Reconsidering the Conn Smythe



By Hockey Guru


Blackhawks Captain Jonathan Toews was awarded the Conn Smythe Award last night - and there's no arguing how important he was to the Stanley Cup Championship. The key face-off wins, the penalty killing and defensive play just don't show up statistically but how much did reputation come into play as he captures this latest award?

Surely, he really doesn't care too much about the individual award right now - and there's no doubt he deserved consideration - but should the award have been given out to one of the other candidates? The Hockey Guru will attempt to answer that question here - and will start by running through the list of candidates and the arguments for each (listed alphabetically).

Dave Bolland - Maybe a reach for inclusion as a candidate - but on the path to the Stanley Cup - his contributions can not be overlooked. He was responsible for shutting down the league's leading scorer and his twin brother in Vancouver and then the "best line" in the world (the line which went to Vancouver in the Olympics as a unit on the Gold Medal Winning Canadian team). In addition to killing penalties throughout the playoffs - he contributed two huge short-handed goals - the back-breaker in the series finale against Vancouver and the third goal of the game in Game One of the finals.

Final stats for the playoffs: Minutes Played: 410 Goals: 8 (1 Game winner) Assists: 8 Shots: 35 Penalty Minutes: 30

Dustin Byfuglien - The Big Buff had a HUGE playoff run this year. Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville noted: "Buff, he seems really to come to the forefront in the playoffs. He was a big presence last year, influenced a couple series. " In 82 games this year he tallied 34 points (about .4 ppg). In the playoffs - he put up 16 points in 22 games - nearly doubling his ppg production.

In the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Big Buff scored 11 times - the most on the team and third behind Daniel Briere and Michael Cammalleri. Of his 11 goals - 5 were game winners. Big Game, Big Goal Big Buff had an amazing playoff run and without players like him stepping up - teams do not win the Stanley Cup.

When not scoring - Big Buff could and did wear out opponents. The Canucks defense fell victim to Big Buff and Mike Richards just didn't seem the same in the finals after trying to run the Buff in game one. Oh, and there's the memorable hit in Game Five on Chris Pronger.

Final stats for the playoffs: Minutes Played: 366 Goals: 11 (5 Game winners) Assists: 5 Shots: 46 Penalty Minutes: 20

Patrick Kane - 10 Goals, 18 Assists, 64 shots on goal and of course there's this.

In watching Patty Kane in the Stanley Cup playoffs last year against Vancouver - it became obvious that he had "it". He has the ability to raise his game when the stakes are highest and simply score big goals. Fulfilling the dream of every player that ever laced 'em up - scoring the Stanley Cup winning OT goal - he proved again he is a BIG-TIME clutch performer. His heroics in game 5 against Nashville may have saved that series and the Blackhawks Stanley Cup run.


Duncan Keith - The love for Chris Pronger had no bounds in the media. There was talk about potentially being the Conn Smythe winner even with Philadelphia losing. Everything Pronger did - Keith did. Keith averaged 52 seconds less ice than Pronger throughout the playoffs and had one less point. However Keith's opponents were slightly more talented offensively than the Bruins and Canadiens. While competing against the "best" in the west of San Jose and Vancouver as well as Nashville and Philadelphia - Keith was able to do all that and only take a mere 5 minor penalties. Pronger was cited for 12 minor - 4 in the Stanley Cup Finals - 3 in the final two games with 2 leading to Hawk goals.

The amazing contribution by Duncan Keith is historic and his Conn Smythe candidacy may have been overlooked.

Final stats for the playoffs: Minutes Played: 620 Goals: 2 Assists: 15 Shots: 61 Penalty Minutes: 10

Antii Niemi - 16 Wins are needed to win the Stanley Cup and Niemi put up that most important stat. In a season where goaltending was the question mark on the Hawks - Niemi proved to be a Stanley Cup Winning Goaltender. In the opening round, Nashville had the Hawks in a bit of trouble (leading the series 1-0 and 2-1) - and both times Niemi responded with shutouts (his only two of the playoffs). Vancouver was left scratching their head more than a few times with Niemi in their series. Against San Jose he was exceptional. And in the finals - while not making all the saves - he has made many timely saves that were significant in the Hawks Stanley Cup run and cannot be overlooked.

Final Stats for the Playoffs: Record 16-6 Save Percentage .910 Goals Against Average 2.63

Jonathan Toews -

The Captain logged the most ice time of any forward on the Hawks. He killed penalties, he finished hits and he scored goals. There's nothing he didn't do and certainly lived up to expectations. Teams don't win the Stanley Cup when their leaders don't lead.

Final Stats for the Playoffs:

Minutes Played: 461
Goals: 7 (3 GWG)
Assists: 22
Shots: 58
Penalty Minutes: 4

Well there are some good arguments for the "leading candidates" from Chicago for the Conn Smythe. After reviewing the case for each - here are the results:

Fifth Runner-up: David Bolland - great contributions throughout but was a couple performances away from really standing out as the most outstanding and most valuable impact on the Stanley Cup run.




Fourth Runner-up: Patrick Kane -the clinching goal deserves to be re-dubbed so the announcers can give it all the excitement and drama that it merits. Maybe there's an added specialness to the shot that just disappeared into the net and the world simply stopped - the moment was frozen in time and didn't need anything added to it - it was simply "unbelieveable." That goal would have moved Kane at least close to the top if only he had a couple other game winners games of shear dominance.




Third Runner-up: Jonathan Toews - A tremendous leader and proved to be a worthy captain to lead his team to become Stanley Cup Champions. His games three and four in Vancouver were awesome. He did it all - scoring, penalty killing, face-offs...




Second Runner-up: Antii Niemi - reviewing the whole body of work - particularly the first round series against Nashville and the key shutouts - he certainly moved up in the Guru's voting. The last thing we saw was a wild Stanley Cup Finals - where goals were going in fast and furious - we cannot forget that he put up the most important of all goaltending stats - the WIN. With 16 career playoff wins (all this year) - he now has more playoff wins than Henrik Lundqvist and is one behind Roberto Luongo. The point being - winning in the playoffs is hard and going 16-6 should not be discounted because of a wide open Stanley Cup Finals.




The two remaining candidates on the Guru's ballot - Duncan Keith and Dustin Byfuglien.
Putting their 2010 Stanley Cup Playoff performances in context:

All-Time, Single Playoff Season Game Winning Goal Leaders
(GWG started being tracked for 1967 Stanley Cup Playoffs)

YearGWGsGoalsShots
Conn Smythe Winner?
Brad Richards2004 71288Yes
Joe Sakic1996
61898Yes
Joe Nieuwendyk199961172Yes
Mario Lemieux19925 1669Yes
Mike Bossy*1983517
No
Jari Kurri**1987515
No
Fernando Pisani#200651449No
Johan Franzen##
20085 1370No
Bobby Smith###19915860No
Dustin Byfuglien201051145No
* 1982 - Islanders lost to the Oilers in the Finals and Mark Messier was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy
** 1987 - Wayne Gretzky was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy

# 2006 - Oilers lost to Carolina in the Finals and Cam Ward was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy
## 2008 - Henrk Zetterberg was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy
### 1991 - Minnesota North Stars lost 4 games to 2 in the finals to Pittsburgh- Mario Lemieux was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy


Conn Smythe Winning Defenseman (Since 1970)

* Did not win Conn Smythe

YearG-A=PtAvg TOIPIM
Bobby Orr1970
1972
9-11=20
5-19=24
NA14
19
Larry Robinson19784-17=21NA6
Al MacInnis19897-24=31NA46
Brian Leetch199411-23=34NA6
Scott Stevens20003-8=1125:256
Nicklas Lidstrom20025-11=1631:102
Scott Niedermayer20073-8=1129:5026
Duncan Keith*20102-15=1728:1110

Jarri Kurri is the precedent that scoring 5 GWG for the winning Stanley Cup Champion does not assure the Conn Smythe. Of course, the Conn Smythe was awarded to Wayne Gretzky (his second in 1987) - who happened to lead the league with 34 playoff points in 21 games (9 more than Kurri). Coincidentally the Flyers were the Stanley Cup Finalists in that year.

Johan Franzen is the only other Stanley Cup winner with at least 5 GWGs in the playoffs that didn't receive the Conn Smythe. Henrik Zetterberg, the winner in 2008 had one less (4 GWGs) and tied Franzen for the playoff goal scoring lead with 13. However, Zetterberg had 14 assists to go along with his goals and tied Sidney Crosby for the playoff scoring title. Zetterberg was the deserving Conn Smythe having potted 2 short handed goals as well.

While this year Toews finished second in playoff scoring - he was fourth on the Hawks in goals with 7 compared to Sharp and Byfuglien's 11 and Kane's 10. The 3 GWGs and the all-around play not withstanding - the Guru believes that Dustin Byfuglien's 2010 playoff performance deserves the Conn Smythe over Toews. Without Big Buff's physical presence - the Guru doesn't believe that Chicago wins the Cup. (Even if Byfuglien is an American and only 4 non-Canadians have ever received the award (Brian Leetch '94, Evgeni Malkin '09, Nicklas Lidstrom '02 and Zetterberg '08)).

However, Byfuglien still would not win the 2010 Conn Smythe Award - according the the Guru. The award should have gone to a Canadian yet again (not that nationality matters to anyone outside of the Canadian border) - but not to the Olympic's Best Forward - but to Duncan Keith. Keith's ability to play monster minutes and be so effective not only defensively but in the transition game, jumping into the offense and special teams play should have earned him this year's Conn Smythe. His performance in these playoffs compares favorably (at least in the Guru's mind) to Scott Neidermeyer's, Nicklas Lidstrom and Scott Stevens' Conn Smythe campaigns.

There's no need for a recount, re-vote or any further controversy - the individual awards really don't matter much right now - in fact, being a Stanley Cup Champion is the only award anybody on Chicago or any other NHL roster really care about. Remove anybody from that roster - and perhaps they don't win the Cup - it takes a team to win the Cup - and that is what makes it the hardest trophy in sports to win.

Congratulations Chicago Blackhawks - Our 2010 Stanley Cup Champions!

Now what'll happened next - check back after Labor Day for Carnac's 2010-11 season predictions - will Pittsburgh get back on track to being the NHL "dynasty" or is Chicago starting their own "dynasty?"

And for the runner-up - his prize will be the series of History Will be Made Videos...












Post Script: Jonathan Toews is the Conn Smythe Winner - but what are the defining moments, memories and plays from the Stanley Cup run for him specifically and the Blackhawks in general? Clearly Byfuglien and Kane have some key goals and big moments. Marian Hossa had the big game 5 OT winner against Nashville (as well as the big "hit from behind"). Finding highlights for Toews and Keith were not as easy nor do individual specific plays stand out. As always STP is always interested in your comments.




4 comments:

  1. This was easily your most comprehensive, fact-packed, beautifully laid out effort and it pains me to be the first to comment after several days.

    On the bright side, the site got more hits on Thursday than any other day for the past few weeks. More so than Wednesday night even, which had also been a pleasant spike in readership.

    Trends show that weekend numbers have always been down, so with all the regulars having tuned in on Thursday, I'm assuming some read this story then (though some may have logged on early that morning).

    Anyway, keep this article at the top of the page and you'll get some stragglers on Monday night. Bump it down with a new feature and this masterfully written post-mortem might not reach all eyes.

    I cannot say enough about the contributions the Guru has made, turning this site from a patchwork collection of hastily assembled stat recaps that any of us could easily have found by filtering the Players tab in the league, into something that is actually worth reading.

    Along with us part-timers (Dive'r Down Dave, Will-He-M, myself and especially Minnesota Chris), the Guru should be proud of how this blog has evolved over the past month or two.

    Now if only he could interject some forced Drew Barrymore references into his writing, maybe we can recapture the traffic that this site deserves.

    Writing for a captive audience of 19 people is tough. What we need to do is tag every article with hot chicks and the topics du jour. So a story about the Conn Smythe winners could compare Toews to Strasburg, or the smoothness of Kane's chest to Drew Barrymore's.

    Three page hits a day is fine for some lame feature that nobody else needs to see, like Box Score'd or Miss Match, but quality writing like this needs to reach more people.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the kind words Nep - maybe a poll voting on the Conn Smythe would be a good addition too - except that when the polls only get 3 or 4 votes it's an empty feeling.

    Better yet - post your take on the award - either in the comments or break out another article and include those items which generate traffic aka Drew Barrymore.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well my own take on the award is that the voting is more predictable than any other award.

    Most NHL awards are voted on by the PHWA as a whole, with months of consideration given. The Conn Smythe needs to get into the 21st century and include all hockey writers, because now the only people who vote are PHWA members who are in attendance in the building when the Cup is awarded.

    Furthermore, they actually still have a guy who goes up and down the Press Box and collects ballots written on little sheets of paper, and in order to make sure they have enough time to engrave a nameplate and everything, the collection takes place with between 10 and 5 minutes left in the 3rd period.

    So in a Game 7, say with the Habs trailing the Canucks by a 2-0 score, each writer picks a list (I can't remember if it's 3 names or 5 names) and submits it to be tabulated. If Subban then scores a natural hattie in the final five minutes and the Habs win in regulation, maybe the award goes to Sedin because nobody thought Subban had played enough games and the Habs were gonna lose anyway.

    So I recall someone telling me that they were gonna change something about OT this year, but if they didn't change the procedure, I believe the winning Kane goal came after the votes had been tabulated.

    The old way was that the ballots collected with 10 minutes remaining in the 3rd would be literally "destroyed" (I asked about fire code regulations but never got the answer) if a game reached OT, but that new ballots would need to be cast before the start of the extra frame (and every subsequent intermission as well).

    So to make a long story short (too late) I think Kane was rather ordinary and if his winner isn't considered, then he's out of the running in my books.

    As for the other nominees, let's hear from the peanut gallery....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Okay, that didn't work.

    So how about Duncan Keith, then?

    While it's true that most everything Pronger did, Keith mirrored. It should be noted, however, that Pronger's numbers were a little better than Keith's.

    The main point though, is that Pronger didn't have the same support as Keith (i.e. Seabrook backing him up) and he still possibly outperformed him. That, and Keith's offensive numbers may have fallen off from his regular season Calder-worthy numbers.

    Conclusion: Keith was no lock in my mind, though possibly deserved it more than Captain Serious, who had a good series against Vancouver.

    ReplyDelete