By Spezzal Teams Playa
You may recall that back in September, the Guru and I made some predictions about the NHL season that recently ended. I even went as far as to predict the outcomes for each projected playoff series, though none of those matchups ever materialized (score me 0-for-8 on those types of predictions, so far).
I realize that this would have been more timely about two weeks ago, but I wanted it on record that I finally managed to out-guess the Guru.
So anyway, I began our little roundtable discussion by trotting out the tired old method of predicting the exact order of the standings, then Hockey Guru fired back with his own unique brand of prognostication, the patented Guru's Giv'er 800% method, which assigns percentages to each team's chances of reaching the playoffs. I did a much better job of explaining the details in this year's baseball edition, but basically you accept the certainty that eight teams will advance, then redistribute those probabilities (8 X 100%) among the entire Conference or league, as it were. The end result usually grants some chance to every team, with the "locks" receiving less than 100% apiece.
Anyway, here were my picks last Fall:
Spezzal Teams Playa
Eastern Conference
1. Montreal2. Pittsburgh
3. Washington
4. New York Rangers
5. Boston
6. Ottawa
7. Carolina
8. Philadelphia
9. New Jersey
10. Buffalo
11. Toronto
12. Tampa Bay
13. New York Islanders
14. Atlanta
15. Florida
Western Conference
1. San Jose2. Chicago
3. Calgary
4. Detroit
5. Anaheim
6. Vancouver
7. Minnesota
8. Los Angeles
9. Nashville
10. Dallas
11. Columbus
12. St. Louis
13. Edmonton
14. Phoenix
15. Colorado
As you can see, I nailed it when it came to thinking that the Bolts and Isles would finish 12-13, as well as the equally bold prediction of Division titles for the Sharks and Hawks. But aside from my 4-for-30 results that were propped up by those obvious choices, how well did I do overall?
- 11-for-16 on playoff teams (missed Buf, NJ, Cld, Nas, Phx)
- 3-for-6 on Division winners (missed Buf, NJ, Vcr)
- predicted NJ would be the 14th team to hit the links (turns out they were the 15th)
- predicted Edm and Fla among the lottery teams (duh)
- predicted that NJ would make way for Otw to return to the playoffs (turns out it was Car and NYR who opened up the two spots for the Sens and Sabres to get back in)
- predicted Cls and StL would make way for LA and Min to return to the playoffs (turns out I was less than half-right as Min missed again, giving the second spot to Phx, while Anh also dropped out so that Cld could pretend that they were a good team)
In other words, when you're right 51% of the time .... you know the rest. So now let's check in on the Guru's results and draw some more random conclusions.
Hockey Guru
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia Flyers: 100%Pittsburgh Penguins: 99%
Washington Capitals: 98%
Boston Bruins: 80%
Tampa Bay Lightning: 52%
Florida Panthers: 51%
New Jersey Devils: 47%
Buffalo Sabres: 45%
Carolina Hurricanes: 44%
New York Rangers: 39%
Toronto Maple Leafs: 38%
Ottawa Senators: 35%
Atlanta Thrashers: 27%
Montreal Canadiens: 25%
New York Islanders: 20%
Western Conference
San Jose Sharks 100%Detroit Red Wings 99%
Vancouver Canucks: 95%
Chicago Blackhawks: 90%
Calgary Flames: 85%
Anaheim Ducks: 70%
Columbus Bluejackets: 60%
St. Louis Blues: 56%
Los Angeles Kings: 40%
Phoenix Coyotes: 33%
Minnesota Wild: 26%
Edmonton Oilers: 25%
Nashville Predators: 16%
Dallas Stars: 5%
Colorado Avalanche: 0%
So what can we say about these picks? How about that leaving the Avs completely off the grid was completely symbolic of how every single pundit treated Colorado's chances, last summer. They ended up being recorded as Guru's "No-chance-in-Hell" pick, at 0%, but truth be told, I think he just forgot about them. Had he given them even a 1% chance, he'd now be able to squeeze a small morsel of food past his size-12 boot. Since he didn't, we can all point and laugh as he tries to explain himself with his foot ankle-deep into his mouth. (And this from a guy who, just three paragraphs ago, admitted to also picking the Avs to finish 15th in the West).
Avs gaffe aside, let's take a look at what the Guru managed to get right.
- 10-for-16 on playoff teams (missed Mtl, Otw, Cld, LA, Nas, Phx)
- 3-for-6 on Division winners (missed Buf, NJ, Chi)
- predicted Edm and NYI among the lottery teams (duh)
- predicted that Car, Mtl and NYR would drop out of the playoffs to make room for Buf, Fla and TB (correctly naming both teams to drop out of this year's playoffs plus one of the two replacements)
- guaranteed success for Phi and SJ, as well as basically guaranteeing playoff appearances for Det, Pit, Wsh, Vcr and Chi (came down to the wire in Philly)
- guaranteed failure by Dallas when many pegged them for the post-season (Dal may have actually still ranked last had the Guru included Cld in his calculations)
As alluded to earlier, I made my playoff picks last Summer as well. Suffice it to say, none of the 8 series currently underway matched up against my bracket. I will say again, however, that I predicted that Round 2 would be contested by Phi, Chi, SJ and Vcr. Naming four of the Elite Eight before training camp 8 months earlier has got to be a good score, no?
Anyway, I go on to put Phi, Chi and Vcr in the Conference Finals, with the 'Hawks winning it all, so I'll revisit this again in a month to brag about that some more.
