Carnac the Guru: And What Thrives at the Poles?

By Hockey Guru


Eight long hours until the drop of the puck. Man, this is gonna be awesome. The second round is winding down .... (cue the music) ....



What a great playoff season so far. With 10 of the 15 playoff series in the books already - and at least one other ending tonight - the action is slowing down. The upsets, the injuries, ths subplots, the unpredictability of these playoffs has been simply amazing. But not tonight. Tonight will be great action so let's get into trying to predict the outcomes of these games.

Before moving forward, let's pause and reflect on what has happened so far:

• Western Conference Quarterfinals - the 1, 2, 3 and 5 seed advance.
  
• Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - the 1, 2, 3, and 5 seed lose.

• Western Conference Finals are set with the 1 and 2 seeds.
  
• Does that mean the Eastern Conference Finals will be the 7 and 8 seeds? Will there by perfect mirror images from the two conferences?

If this prediction of the polar extremes of the conferences is to come true, it would mean that Montreal closes out Pittsburgh tonight and Philly would have to force a Game 7 in the other Conference Semi-Final. Well, going back and playing with his crystal ball, this is what the Guru foresees:

---

The end is upon on us. The end of this series and the end of the season for one of these teams. The Canadiens are the better story - the heart, the overcoming of not just long odds, but of all the adversity they've faced. They are the overachieving underdog. The Penguins are the underachieving champions. Last year's Conn Smythe winner, Evgeni Malkin, has had a lesser role in this series than Maxim Lapierre. Or perhaps, his lack of production is a major role in this series.

This is going to be a very difficult game for Pittsburgh to win. It is expected that they will come out and play their best game of the playoffs tonight. With that said, they MUST be disciplined and NOT shoot the puck. Yeah, you heard right. They are stuck in the conundrum of having to score goals without shooting. If they get to 35+ shots on net, it is like playing too aggressively in pinball - the machine will tilt and you'll helplessly watch as your opportunity rolls down the drain.

The Guru loves good stories and loves the underdog, but in his gut he sees Pittsburgh finding a way to pull off a Game 7 victory and thereby potentially extending the career of one Wild Bill Guerin for at least another two weeks. His crystal ball foresees the Penguins throwing away the passive approach though - this will be an up tempo game. While players will be diving to block shots and getting back defensively on both sides, there will be mad speed and crazy shots. As Dan Bylsma recently said, "Game 7 feels like a flip of a coin."

The Guru flipped a coin and here was the result:



Final Score: Pittsburgh 5 - Montreal 2 (with two empty net goals to ice a close game)

---

While not quite as big as a Game 7, the result could be exactly the same for Philadelphia - GAME OVER, if they lose. Of course, that was true about Games 4 and 5 and they survived through those games. Tonight's prediction won't catch any of the long-time Guru-maniacs off-guard, but just to be certain, let's play with the crystal ball again (any excuse to touch the ball).

Claude Julien proved something to the Guru last spring. The lesson the Guru took away from observing the Bruins flop against Carolina was that Julien couldn't make adjustments. When the Bruins found themselves down, he called the team out in the papers and gave them the day off to figure things out on their own. The inability to make any adjustments in that series cost them. Spewing out cliches such as focus, discipline and getting pucks to the net are great and all, but it appears that the Flyers have made the adjustments necessary to score on Rask and shut down the Bruins. And I'm not the only one who sees this as a problem.

Tuukka Rask gives the Bruins a legitimate shot to win. The Brian Boucher injury may not be as severe or grotesque as it first seemed, but he's still out. With Michael Leighton back in nets, however, the Flyers may have improved their goaltending a bit. Tonight's prediction is that the Flyers continue to make history as only the third ever comeback from a 3-0 series deficit continues to unfold. Final Score - Philadelphia 4 - Boston 1.

---

---

The Guru Report: And We're Off to the Boat Races

by Hockey Guru


Opening night of the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs has come and gone.

The expectations for Round 1 are high in Hockey Guru's mind (again, here I go with the 3rd person thing...) - almost too high and so night 1 is a bit of a let down.

But that's okay - even though there weren't the twists and turns anticipated in the games last night - knowing the playoffs have begun is gratifying in itself.

Opening night, the Eastern Conference saw 2 boat races and a hockey game.

(To clarify for readers that don't get my humour - I know there were 4 hockey games and all were played on frozen water. I know that the machine is actually a zamboni and not a boat).

By calling 3 games boat races - I mean that there was almost as much drama in the game as there is in a boat race. You see, in boating, whoever gets the lead at the start - goes on to win 6 days later or something.

---

Pittsburgh-Philadelphia

The Flyers forgot that they are supposed to be healthy this year. The picked up where they left off last year in the Conference finals.

Then Penguins played game 1 almost perfectly - and did so without Malkian or Crosbian performances from their superstars.

This is the NHL though - and a best of seven series. The Flyers have been employing the "rope-a-dope" theory under John Stevens of taking it on the chin in game 1 and showing up for game 2.

While game 2 is not a must win for the Flyers - it is expected to be much more competitive.

---

"Boat Race #2"

New Jersey-Carolina

Did I really pick Carolina to advance in this series? As Keyser Soze said - "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to make the world believe he didn't exist."

These Devils pulled that trick off again (well, almost - the unemployed vampire, aka Tito "TD" O'Dell, believed that the Devils still existed in his prognistication).

With so many bright minds in the hockey community picking the Canes based on their surge and the Devils malaise - last night, Sutter's boys proved that you can turn it back on in the playoffs - and cruised to a 1-0 series lead.

---

Washington-New York Rangers

Something about surprise, the unexpected - makes sports so appealing to me.

The "Oh, my - did that just happen" thought goes went through my head as the Rangers built the 3-1 lead against Washington. And then quickly saw the high powered Caps even the score.

In the end, Brandon Dubinsky's snipe was the difference and the Rangers took the home ice advantage in the series away from the Capitals.

The Rangers will now play game 2 at Madison Square Garden. Game 5 will be at MSG.
Should the series go seven - the Rangers will have the decisive game in their barn and have earned the "extra" game at home in the series.

But don't buy tickets yet. You see, the schedule can and will change if the Capitals manage to win a game on the road in the series.

It's almost impossible. Road teams never win games in any sport - especially hockey.

(Again - for those readers that are having some trouble seeing the incredibly high-brow wit and humour in this post - I'm JOKING).

The home ice angle is one of my pet peeves. Home ice is determined going into a series and doesn't change.

Washington lost game 1.

Washington still has the home ice advantage in this series.

They now have to find a way to win one on the road to win the series - but, believe it or not, it is possible. Perhaps you want to see a list of the teams that have come back from 0-1 deficits after losing the first game at home?

Not my forte.

But Ovechkin's forte is goal scoring - and the guy is simply amazing to watch.

What I want to watch is if the Caps have a goalie change heading into game 2. As mentioned, the Hockey Guru would have started Varlamov in the series - as I think he gives a better chance to win - both today and in the future.

The Caps window of opportunity to win a cup is just beginning and Theodore's career is not.

As I recently learned - rookies can win in the playoffs. It may be Varlamov's time.

---

---

My Enormous Crystal Balls: NHL 2009 (Eastern)

by Hockey Guru, Will-He-M and Spezzal Teams Playa



I know that you’ve probably heard all this stuff before. Hell, you might even have read these exact words elsewhere. Nevertheless, DJ Spezzal Teams presents the 2009 Playoff Preview Mash Up (Eastside Club Mix). Enjoy.

Montreal (8) at Boston (1)

Hockey Guru: It’s deja vu all over again. The exact rematch of the #1-8 series from 2008, but in a Bizarro world, the Bruins are the one-seed, and Montreal the eight-seed. The odds will be overwhelmingly for the Bruins, but they have had a dream season with minimal adversity. They may be the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2008-09 season - they didn't get too much respect. The Bruins went through the season with playoff intensity, throughout. The Krejci-Ryder-Wheeler line was unbelievable, for a stretch during the season. Krejci was a Top 10 player for a month, but hasn't sniffed that level in some time. Ryder has a history of disappearing and Wheeler is a rookie that may have hit the wall. In my opinion, the Bruins don't have another level to which to raise their game, but their game is already at a high-level and may be enough to make a serious run. However, I'm not a believer. If the Habs were healthy on the blueline, they'd easily be my pick for the series. The "second season" gives them a chance to start over with a clean slate after a tumultuous season. So basically the Guru (I'm now writing in the 3rd person) calls this series a toss-up; a pick'em. If the Bruins get off to a good start and win their home games, and gain some confidence and swagger, it could be over in five. But, the Guru isn't afraid to look stupid (some would argue it comes naturally to him). The belief is that they may have false confidence, thinking that being the number one seed means something in itself, when it doesn't. If you're still reading this, I apologize. If, however, you are reading this because my wife is trying to have me committed, then I'll go voluntarily, if I can have the NHL package. Guru's prognostications are totally wrong, but hopefully they were more entertaining than the countless articles we'll be reading this week. Prediction: Bruins in 7 (this way, if Montreal wins, I can say that I knew it would be close) Prediction: Montreal.

Will-he-M: For the millionth time in NHL history, the Habs and Bruins meet. For some reason, it doesn't matter where Montreal finishes. 1st or 8th, they play the Bruins tough, and win. Remember 2002? Bruins finish 2nd overall in the NHL, meet the Habs, thinking cakewalk. What happens? Bruins lose in 6. Remember 2004? Bruins finish 4th in the NHL standings, play the lowly Habs again. They think they know what to do now. What happens? Bruins blow a 3-1 series lead and Habs move on while Joe Thornton again proves why he can't play in the Playoffs (0 points in 7 games). The Habs’ PP will be fine with young Yannick Weber and old Mathieu Schneider capitalizing on Boston's need to bully the Habs. (The Habs’ PP scored 3 times against the Bruins on Thursday). Last year the Bruins surprised the Habs, but come Game 7, Tim Thomas shat the bed, and Carey Price stood on his head. And with word that Andrei Markov will be ready by Game 1, that alone improves the Habs’ chances greatly. Prediction: Habs in 6.

Spezzal Teams Playa: You’re both wrong! Nah – jus’ kidding. I always wanted to say that in a format like this. It’s like we’re sitting beside each other on a panel, discussing this in real time. Cooool. Anyway, yes, these two teams have met a lot over the years. And yes the Habs have dominated. I’m not sure where Vegas has them, but I’d bet it’s somewhere close to “biggest long shot” to come out of Round 1. So who knows? Being a massive homer, I’m probably giving them too much credit, but I too see the Bruins faltering. Prediction: Canadiens in 7.

New York (7) at Washington (2)

Guru: Ovechkin on Broadway. Rangers have the goalie to win but may not have the players in front of the goalie. Capitals have the players to win but may not have the goalie to win. The Guru loves watching the Caps. Mike Green and these Russians named Alex are pretty good hockey players. If only a Russian were in net it would be easy to pick the Caps. The Rangers were boring hockey personified, but since the coaching change, they actually skate and fore check. This could be a wide-open series, with the clear edge in scoring to the Caps and the clear edge in goaltending to the Rangers. Conventional wisdom is that defense wins in the playoffs. Conventional wisdom is to draft your team and hold. Guru likes streaming. Guru likes offense. Guru likes Washington in the series. Prediction: Caps in 5 (I'll be bold here) .

Will: These teams are complete opposites. The Caps have two great forwards, one great defenceman and no goalie. Rangers have several under-achievers on offence and defence, and a goalie who is considered one of the best. This series will be a cakewalk for the Caps, but Lundqvist will give the appearance that the Rangers stood a chance. Prediction: Caps in 5.

Spezzal Teams Playa: If you had asked me, I might have ranked cake waaaay down on the list of most desirable strolling surfaces. Not all the way down near hot coals or broken glass, and not even as low as a new gravel road in bare feet, but certainly below cold wet grass and even knee-high snow. With skates on, cakewalking can only get worse. Forget about Green, and his supposedly adequate defensive abilities, when your next best blue liner is a toss-up between Erskine, Pothier and Jeff Schultz, aren’t you depending a lot upon your goaltender? That’s not even mentioning the 17-18 minutes per game that Theodore will be helped by the tandem of Jurcina-Morrisonn. That said, the Rangers just don’t have the top-end talent to answer almost ten goals from Ovie. Prediction: Capitals in 6.

Carolina (6) at New Jersey (3)

Guru: Based on their histories, this would appear to be a trapping snore fest - a soccer game on ice. Au contraire mon frere, this is 2009 - and both teams have become more aggressive, finishing in the middle of the pack, in terms of goal scoring. Maybe the best thing about this series is it's a first round series and there'll be other games to watch. Seriously, this series seems to be of little interest and would only be rated as the 7th or 8th most interesting series in the 1st Round. But from low expectations, you can be pleasantly surprised. It's like fantasy drafts - sure you're happy with Eric Staal's season this year, but for a 2nd Rounder, you kind of expected it. On the other hand, you’re psyched for 45 goals from Zach Parise in the 5th Round. The Devils were written off before the season. When Brodeur went down, the book was closed. This team is like Jason in the horror movies - they don't go away. But the Guru predicts that Cam Ward will rival Marty Brodeur in this series and that Eric Staal and the Whaler-canes will advance.

Will: This series will be won by goaltending. The greatest of all time, versus the (thus far) one-year (playoff) wonder. I've bet on Brodeur before in the face of adversity and lost. He struggled, to end the season, and I see that continuing. Prediction: Canes in 7.

Spezzal Teams Playa: I was beginning to get worried about the level of consensus in the room until now. I honestly don’t know what I would have said, had the two of you picked the Devils. I just might have abandoned my pick of the East to avoid agreeing with you guys a third time. Thank God that wasn’t necessary. I’m not discouraged by Fat Marty’s lacklustre play of late. The guy should have plenty in the tank after taking his first months-long vacation since he was 10 years old. Prediction: Devils in 4 straight.

Philadelphia (5) at Pittsburgh (4)

Guru: The re-match of the Eastern Conference Finals from a year ago. This time there is no guarantee that the winner gets to play for the Cup. Running out of gas, fingers bleeding, life calling - this one will be quick. The heart wants Pittsburgh, but the head tells me that Philly is going a long way this year. They have a beast of a team to play against for a series. Guru doesn't like going against his heart, but the head says Philly will prevail this time around.

Will: Flyers are vastly over-rated. I have no doubt that they have the forwards to compete, but I question their defence and goaltending. Outside of Timonen and Coburn, who's there? Randy Jones? Matt Carle? Ryan Parent? Andrew Alberts? Not exactly a frightening combination to play against. Biron? Please, the guy's had two mediocre seasons and one good playoff, as a Flyer. He'll crash and burn against the Pens. Prediction: Pens in 6.

Spezzal Teams Playa: I’ll wrap this one up quick – something neither Pennsylvania team will be able to do. Prediction: Penguins in 7 games.



We’ll do a quick run-down of the Western Conference shortly, but we won’t have time to delve into things too deeply.

---

---