Showing posts with label Jonathan Toews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonathan Toews. Show all posts

Thursday, June 10, 2010

The Guru Report: Reconsidering the Conn Smythe



By Hockey Guru


Blackhawks Captain Jonathan Toews was awarded the Conn Smythe Award last night - and there's no arguing how important he was to the Stanley Cup Championship. The key face-off wins, the penalty killing and defensive play just don't show up statistically but how much did reputation come into play as he captures this latest award?

Surely, he really doesn't care too much about the individual award right now - and there's no doubt he deserved consideration - but should the award have been given out to one of the other candidates? The Hockey Guru will attempt to answer that question here - and will start by running through the list of candidates and the arguments for each (listed alphabetically).

Dave Bolland - Maybe a reach for inclusion as a candidate - but on the path to the Stanley Cup - his contributions can not be overlooked. He was responsible for shutting down the league's leading scorer and his twin brother in Vancouver and then the "best line" in the world (the line which went to Vancouver in the Olympics as a unit on the Gold Medal Winning Canadian team). In addition to killing penalties throughout the playoffs - he contributed two huge short-handed goals - the back-breaker in the series finale against Vancouver and the third goal of the game in Game One of the finals.

Final stats for the playoffs: Minutes Played: 410 Goals: 8 (1 Game winner) Assists: 8 Shots: 35 Penalty Minutes: 30

Dustin Byfuglien - The Big Buff had a HUGE playoff run this year. Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville noted: "Buff, he seems really to come to the forefront in the playoffs. He was a big presence last year, influenced a couple series. " In 82 games this year he tallied 34 points (about .4 ppg). In the playoffs - he put up 16 points in 22 games - nearly doubling his ppg production.

In the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Big Buff scored 11 times - the most on the team and third behind Daniel Briere and Michael Cammalleri. Of his 11 goals - 5 were game winners. Big Game, Big Goal Big Buff had an amazing playoff run and without players like him stepping up - teams do not win the Stanley Cup.

When not scoring - Big Buff could and did wear out opponents. The Canucks defense fell victim to Big Buff and Mike Richards just didn't seem the same in the finals after trying to run the Buff in game one. Oh, and there's the memorable hit in Game Five on Chris Pronger.

Final stats for the playoffs: Minutes Played: 366 Goals: 11 (5 Game winners) Assists: 5 Shots: 46 Penalty Minutes: 20

Patrick Kane - 10 Goals, 18 Assists, 64 shots on goal and of course there's this.

In watching Patty Kane in the Stanley Cup playoffs last year against Vancouver - it became obvious that he had "it". He has the ability to raise his game when the stakes are highest and simply score big goals. Fulfilling the dream of every player that ever laced 'em up - scoring the Stanley Cup winning OT goal - he proved again he is a BIG-TIME clutch performer. His heroics in game 5 against Nashville may have saved that series and the Blackhawks Stanley Cup run.


Duncan Keith - The love for Chris Pronger had no bounds in the media. There was talk about potentially being the Conn Smythe winner even with Philadelphia losing. Everything Pronger did - Keith did. Keith averaged 52 seconds less ice than Pronger throughout the playoffs and had one less point. However Keith's opponents were slightly more talented offensively than the Bruins and Canadiens. While competing against the "best" in the west of San Jose and Vancouver as well as Nashville and Philadelphia - Keith was able to do all that and only take a mere 5 minor penalties. Pronger was cited for 12 minor - 4 in the Stanley Cup Finals - 3 in the final two games with 2 leading to Hawk goals.

The amazing contribution by Duncan Keith is historic and his Conn Smythe candidacy may have been overlooked.

Final stats for the playoffs: Minutes Played: 620 Goals: 2 Assists: 15 Shots: 61 Penalty Minutes: 10

Antii Niemi - 16 Wins are needed to win the Stanley Cup and Niemi put up that most important stat. In a season where goaltending was the question mark on the Hawks - Niemi proved to be a Stanley Cup Winning Goaltender. In the opening round, Nashville had the Hawks in a bit of trouble (leading the series 1-0 and 2-1) - and both times Niemi responded with shutouts (his only two of the playoffs). Vancouver was left scratching their head more than a few times with Niemi in their series. Against San Jose he was exceptional. And in the finals - while not making all the saves - he has made many timely saves that were significant in the Hawks Stanley Cup run and cannot be overlooked.

Final Stats for the Playoffs: Record 16-6 Save Percentage .910 Goals Against Average 2.63

Jonathan Toews -

The Captain logged the most ice time of any forward on the Hawks. He killed penalties, he finished hits and he scored goals. There's nothing he didn't do and certainly lived up to expectations. Teams don't win the Stanley Cup when their leaders don't lead.

Final Stats for the Playoffs:

Minutes Played: 461
Goals: 7 (3 GWG)
Assists: 22
Shots: 58
Penalty Minutes: 4

Well there are some good arguments for the "leading candidates" from Chicago for the Conn Smythe. After reviewing the case for each - here are the results:

Fifth Runner-up: David Bolland - great contributions throughout but was a couple performances away from really standing out as the most outstanding and most valuable impact on the Stanley Cup run.




Fourth Runner-up: Patrick Kane -the clinching goal deserves to be re-dubbed so the announcers can give it all the excitement and drama that it merits. Maybe there's an added specialness to the shot that just disappeared into the net and the world simply stopped - the moment was frozen in time and didn't need anything added to it - it was simply "unbelieveable." That goal would have moved Kane at least close to the top if only he had a couple other game winners games of shear dominance.




Third Runner-up: Jonathan Toews - A tremendous leader and proved to be a worthy captain to lead his team to become Stanley Cup Champions. His games three and four in Vancouver were awesome. He did it all - scoring, penalty killing, face-offs...




Second Runner-up: Antii Niemi - reviewing the whole body of work - particularly the first round series against Nashville and the key shutouts - he certainly moved up in the Guru's voting. The last thing we saw was a wild Stanley Cup Finals - where goals were going in fast and furious - we cannot forget that he put up the most important of all goaltending stats - the WIN. With 16 career playoff wins (all this year) - he now has more playoff wins than Henrik Lundqvist and is one behind Roberto Luongo. The point being - winning in the playoffs is hard and going 16-6 should not be discounted because of a wide open Stanley Cup Finals.




The two remaining candidates on the Guru's ballot - Duncan Keith and Dustin Byfuglien.
Putting their 2010 Stanley Cup Playoff performances in context:

All-Time, Single Playoff Season Game Winning Goal Leaders
(GWG started being tracked for 1967 Stanley Cup Playoffs)

YearGWGsGoalsShots
Conn Smythe Winner?
Brad Richards2004 71288Yes
Joe Sakic1996
61898Yes
Joe Nieuwendyk199961172Yes
Mario Lemieux19925 1669Yes
Mike Bossy*1983517
No
Jari Kurri**1987515
No
Fernando Pisani#200651449No
Johan Franzen##
20085 1370No
Bobby Smith###19915860No
Dustin Byfuglien201051145No
* 1982 - Islanders lost to the Oilers in the Finals and Mark Messier was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy
** 1987 - Wayne Gretzky was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy

# 2006 - Oilers lost to Carolina in the Finals and Cam Ward was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy
## 2008 - Henrk Zetterberg was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy
### 1991 - Minnesota North Stars lost 4 games to 2 in the finals to Pittsburgh- Mario Lemieux was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy


Conn Smythe Winning Defenseman (Since 1970)

* Did not win Conn Smythe

YearG-A=PtAvg TOIPIM
Bobby Orr1970
1972
9-11=20
5-19=24
NA14
19
Larry Robinson19784-17=21NA6
Al MacInnis19897-24=31NA46
Brian Leetch199411-23=34NA6
Scott Stevens20003-8=1125:256
Nicklas Lidstrom20025-11=1631:102
Scott Niedermayer20073-8=1129:5026
Duncan Keith*20102-15=1728:1110

Jarri Kurri is the precedent that scoring 5 GWG for the winning Stanley Cup Champion does not assure the Conn Smythe. Of course, the Conn Smythe was awarded to Wayne Gretzky (his second in 1987) - who happened to lead the league with 34 playoff points in 21 games (9 more than Kurri). Coincidentally the Flyers were the Stanley Cup Finalists in that year.

Johan Franzen is the only other Stanley Cup winner with at least 5 GWGs in the playoffs that didn't receive the Conn Smythe. Henrik Zetterberg, the winner in 2008 had one less (4 GWGs) and tied Franzen for the playoff goal scoring lead with 13. However, Zetterberg had 14 assists to go along with his goals and tied Sidney Crosby for the playoff scoring title. Zetterberg was the deserving Conn Smythe having potted 2 short handed goals as well.

While this year Toews finished second in playoff scoring - he was fourth on the Hawks in goals with 7 compared to Sharp and Byfuglien's 11 and Kane's 10. The 3 GWGs and the all-around play not withstanding - the Guru believes that Dustin Byfuglien's 2010 playoff performance deserves the Conn Smythe over Toews. Without Big Buff's physical presence - the Guru doesn't believe that Chicago wins the Cup. (Even if Byfuglien is an American and only 4 non-Canadians have ever received the award (Brian Leetch '94, Evgeni Malkin '09, Nicklas Lidstrom '02 and Zetterberg '08)).

However, Byfuglien still would not win the 2010 Conn Smythe Award - according the the Guru. The award should have gone to a Canadian yet again (not that nationality matters to anyone outside of the Canadian border) - but not to the Olympic's Best Forward - but to Duncan Keith. Keith's ability to play monster minutes and be so effective not only defensively but in the transition game, jumping into the offense and special teams play should have earned him this year's Conn Smythe. His performance in these playoffs compares favorably (at least in the Guru's mind) to Scott Neidermeyer's, Nicklas Lidstrom and Scott Stevens' Conn Smythe campaigns.

There's no need for a recount, re-vote or any further controversy - the individual awards really don't matter much right now - in fact, being a Stanley Cup Champion is the only award anybody on Chicago or any other NHL roster really care about. Remove anybody from that roster - and perhaps they don't win the Cup - it takes a team to win the Cup - and that is what makes it the hardest trophy in sports to win.

Congratulations Chicago Blackhawks - Our 2010 Stanley Cup Champions!

Now what'll happened next - check back after Labor Day for Carnac's 2010-11 season predictions - will Pittsburgh get back on track to being the NHL "dynasty" or is Chicago starting their own "dynasty?"

And for the runner-up - his prize will be the series of History Will be Made Videos...












Post Script: Jonathan Toews is the Conn Smythe Winner - but what are the defining moments, memories and plays from the Stanley Cup run for him specifically and the Blackhawks in general? Clearly Byfuglien and Kane have some key goals and big moments. Marian Hossa had the big game 5 OT winner against Nashville (as well as the big "hit from behind"). Finding highlights for Toews and Keith were not as easy nor do individual specific plays stand out. As always STP is always interested in your comments.




The Sports Talk Playoff Pool: Final Exam Grades



By Hockey Guru


For a complete listing of the actual game rules, please click on these here blue words.


73.0

82.0

104.080.5123.577.5
GoaltenderLeighton
-5.0
Leighton
-5.0
Leighton
-5.0
Niemi
-5.5
Niemi
-5.5
Niemi
-5.5
Defense 1Pronger
4
Pronger
4
Pronger
4
Keith
7
Keith
7
Pronger
4
Defense 2Carle
1
Carle
1
Campbell
2
Campbell
2
Campbell
2
Campbell
2
Forward 1Richards
2
Carter
2
Richards
2
Kane
8
Toews
3
Toews
3
Forward 2Gagne
2
Briere
11
Hossa
4
Hossa
4
Briere
11
Byfuglien
7
Forward 3Leino
9
Leino
9
Hartnell
7
Versteeg
5
Bolland
6
Hartnell
7

Will there be an OT game in Chicago?

Yes
0
No
10
Yes
0
No
10
No
10
No
10
Will there be an OT game in Philadelphia?

No

0 Pts

No

0 Pts

Yes

10 Pts

No

0 Pts

Yes

10 Pts

No

0 Pts

How many games will the series last?

4 Games

0 Pts

6 Games

10 pts

6 Games

10 pts

5 Games

0 Pts

5 Games

0 Pts

7 Games

0 pts

How many Total Goals will be scored in the series? (currently 47 and counting)

24

0 Pts

34

0Pts

26

0 Pts

27

0 Pts

25

0 Pts

37

10
Pts

Will there be a fighting major in the series? No fights through 6 games
Yes
0 pts
Yes
0 pts
No
10 pts
Yes
0 pts
No
10 pts
Yes
0 pts
Over/Under on Empty Net Goals in the series is set at 2.5 2 thru 5
Under
10 pts
Over
0 pts
Under
10 pts
Over
0 pts
Under
10 pts
Over
0 pts
Will the team that wins Game One win the Cup?Yes
10 pts
No
0 pts
Yes
10 pts
Yes
10 pts
Yes
10 pts
No
0 pts
Over/Under on 5-on-3 Goals in the series is set at 1.5 1 thru 5Under
10 pts
Under
10 pts
Under
10 pts
Under
10 pts
Under
10 pts
Over
0 pts
Will Philadelphia be shutout in any of the games?No
10 pts
No
10 pts
No
10 pts
No
10 pts
YesNo
10 pts
Will Chicago be shutout in any of the games?No
10 pts
No
10 pts
Yes
0 pts
No
10 pts
No
10 pts
No
10 pts
Will any of player from the first 4 questions miss a game in the series?No
10 pts
Yes
0 pts
No
10 pts
No
10 pts
No
10 pts
Yes
0 pts
Which player not included in the first 6 questions will score the most Goals + Assists in the series?Powe
0
Hjalmarsson
3
10 pts
Carcillo
0
Kopecky
2
Hjalmarsson
3
10 pts
Ladd
3
10 pts
Which player will be handed the Cup first by his Captain?Pronger

Kane
0 pts
Carter

Keith
0 pts
Pronger

Hossa
10 pts
Pronger

Keith
0 pts
Pronger

Kane
0 pts
Pronger

Kane
0 pts
Who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy?ProngerRichardsLeightonByfuglienToews
10 pts
Toews
10 pts




Friday, May 28, 2010

Carnac the Guru: Talk About Predictable Outcomes



By Hockey Guru


Maybe the forecast of a Philadelphia and Chicago Stanley Cup Final was predictable as far back as last September, but the paths the two teams took to arrive here certainly were enjoyable and anything but predictable. [Editor's Note: I disagree on that last point, since I actually did predict almost the exact road - that the Blackhawks would come out of the 2nd seed, and that the Flyers would come out of the 8th seed]

The latest Cardiac Kids - these Philadelphia Flyers - may be the poster child for the latest wave of 0-3 series comebacks, but Chicago seems to be a well-oiled machine, destined to hoist the Cup in the next two weeks. What does the Guru's crystal ball foresee?

The data going in shows that the Hawks defeated Nashville, Vancouver and San Jose en route to their SCF appearance. Meanwhile the Flyers eliminated New Jersey, Boston and Montreal to arrive on the grand stage.

According to the Crystal Ball - San Jose and Vancouver would come out on top of each of the teams eliminated by Philadelphia - going a combined 6-0 in those matchups (the closest being New Jersey-Vancouver which would have gone 7 games).

This matchup, at first glance would appear to be a BCS school vs non-BCS school in a National Championship game. Sure, it would be a great story for Boise State to knock of Alabama - but realisticly - it's just not going to happen.

However, on the ice, one thing that can not be overlooked is the parity in the NHL. The fact that the Flyers only made it to the playoffs following a shoot-out victory is proof enough. The Flyers are mentally tough - as coming back from an 0-3 hole proves - and they have a deep and talented team.

The Hawks had their hands full with Nashville. 6'5" Goaltender Pekka Rinne and the great-skating defense of Nashville caused a lot of concern and with a couple bounces - the Hawks were nearly bounced from the play-offs. (Well by nearly, they weren't even pushed to an elimination game).

The Hawks were built and designed to overcome the Detroit Red Wings machine - one which "invented" the left-wing lock which is employed by Philadelphia. The Hawks will be soaring and will break through against Philadelphia much the way they did against San Jose and Vancouver. They will be able to raise their game when needed to win.

The series prediction from the Guru is the Hawks in 5 games.

Game One prediction: Fast, physical first period. Hawks scoring at least one PP goal and leading 2-0 or 2-1 after the first. Game settling down a bit in the second, but another Hawks "victory" in the second period with the Hawks wrapping up Game One with a decisive 6-3 victory.


[Update: It's currently 7:19 PM ET on Saturday, May 29th, or about an hour before puck drop for Game One.]


The 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs has been unpredictable - although the Hockey Guru has been right much more often than not - the Hockey Guru, himself has proven to be unpredictable.

Tonight marks the first 180-degree turn around on a prediction - prior to anything else changing.

The Guru contemplated the prediction of the Hawks in five - and one thing kept coming back to him - this is a series of men against boys.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are boys. They say the right things - but they really don't believe that this may be their only chance at a Stanley Cup. The Flyers have more veterans - more career players that will be leaving everything they have on the ice. The Flyers have a great coach and this series will be much more difficult than the original Hawks in Five prediction.

The depth of the Flyers is probably more impressive than the depth of the Hawks (particularly if going on merit and not reputation). Marian Hossa hasn't produced yet - what would make the crystal ball predict otherwise? The Flyers will get the jump on the series tonight and might even get up 2-0. Chicago will not be swept (although there are some experts that have consulted with the Guru with just that predictiion)!

The Guru is not quite prepared to change the series pick from Chicago - just he believes that Chicago will have to step up their game in this series and have little to no margin for error.

The way this first game unfolds may be as telling as game one in the Eastern Conference Finals or may leave the Guru continuing to be on the fence.

Tonight's revised Game One prediction: Philadelphia 4 - Chicago 3



Thursday, May 27, 2010

The Sports Talk Playoff Pool: The NHL Final Exam



By Hockey Guru


The clock is ticking down to the drop of the puck in Game 1.

Time to cram for/in one Final Exam, to be graded over the course of the series to determine the final fantasy hockey championship of the 2009-2010 season. (Don't forget the 2010 NHL Player Entry Draft Fantasy Draft will be upon us shortly).

Will the Shithawks ride the Blackhawks to as much success in the Finals Exam, as he did in the current Sports Talk Playoff Pool or even the STP fantasy league? Will there be more or less entries for this Exam pool than the usual suspects?

Prepare for the Exam and submit your entries via e-mail at cbsbaseball2002@yahoo.com

Final prizes will be determined based on total entries and dependent on how much sponsorship is pledged. It is expected that these will be the best prizes to date.

So to enhance your personal enjoyment of the 2010 Stanley Cup Final, put yourself into the action and build the Cup-winning roster that amasses the highest point total, by answering these 20 questions:



Considering the following scoring breakdown:

SHO = 3 Pts
SV = .1 Pts
GA = -1 Pt

Goal = 1 Pt
Assist = 1 Pt
SHP = 1 Pt
GWG = 1 Pt
OT Point Scored = 1 Pt

Please select one player per question:

  • 1) Antii Niemi or Michael Leighton

  • 2) Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook

  • 3) Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn, Brian Campbell, Brent Sopel

  • 4) Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews

  • 5) Danny Briere, Simon Gagne, Claude Giroux, Dustin Byfuglien, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa

  • 6) Ville Leino, Scott Hartnell, Aaron Asham, James van Riemsdyk, Ian Laperriere, Kris Versteeg, Dave Bolland, Troy Brower, John Madden, Ben Eager


  • 7) Will there be an overtime game in Chicago? (10 Pts)

  • 8) Will there be an overtime game in Philadelphia? (10 Pts)

  • 9) How many games does the series last? (10 Pts for exact answer only)

  • 10) How many total goals will be scored in the series? (10 Pts for the closest answer)

  • 11) Will there be any fighting majors? (10 Pts)

  • 12) How many empty-net goals will be scored in the series? Over or under 2.5? (10 Pts)

  • 13) Will the team that wins Game 1 go on to win the series? (10 Pts)

  • 14) How many 5-on-3 goals will be scored in the series? Over or under 1.5? (10 Pts)

  • 15) Will Philadelphia be shutout in any of the games? (10 Pts)

  • 16) Will Chicago be shutout in any of the games? (10 Pts)

  • 17) Will any player from questions 1-4 end up missing a game in the series? (10 Pts)

  • 18) Which player not mentioned on this exam will score the most Goals + Assists? (20 Pts for exact answer only)

  • 19) If Philadelphia wins the series, who does Mike Richards hand the Cup to first? If Chicago wins, who does Jonathan Toews hand the Cup to first? (20 Pts)

  • 20) Who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy? (25 Pts)