Montreal - really? Really! They have evened their series again and tomorrow night will they punch their tickets to the Eastern Conference Finals? Will this be the end of the Penguins title defense?
The Guru is stumped by the latest turn of events in Montreal and will be re-focusing on that series again tomorrow.
Re-focusing is what Vancouver did well in Game 5, which is why we have some hockey to watch tonight. Can they maintain that focus and hold down the Blackhawks offense which has seen back-to-back hat tricks in Vancouver?
Tonight the crystal ball shows Chicago's advantage over Vancouver at defense being the difference. Where Keith, Seabrook and Campbell can skate with and defend the Vancouver attack, the Vancouver defense will be exploited by the speed of the Hawks forwards - particularly Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The two stars will lead their team into the Western Conference Finals to face San Jose. The Hawks soar once more in Vancouver and close the series out. Prediction: Chicago 4 Vancouver 2.
and the plans for the NFL-AFL merger are completed. The NFL would now consist of two conferences of 13 teams each, the AFC and NFC. The NFL agrees to move three franchises, Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, to the AFC.
On this day, in 1970 ....
a gallon of gas cost 36 cents
a head of lettuce cost 29 cents
and Bobby Orr's goal gave Boston its first Stanley Cup in 29 years. The Bruins beat the St.Louis Blues in overtime, to complete the four-game sweep.
and Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres became the ninth pitcher in major league history to win 350 games, allowing only one unearned run over six innings, in a 3-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies.
I think Jerry Reed said it best, back in 1971, with:
The Guru's forecasting this weekend was outstanding!
But have no fear, through the magic of the internet, the method for performing the self-congratulatory action without injury has been found and these daily updates should continue uninterrupted through the awarding of the Lord Stanley's Cup.
The Eastern Conference Finals could be determined Monday night, if Boston and Pittsburgh can close out their series.
Will it happen?
The NHL's marketing theme in this year's playoffs is that History Will Be Made. That theme has worked itself into the Guru's subconscious, as you will see in this installment of Carnac the Guru.
And what could be more historic than a comeback from a 3-0 series deficit?
In reality, there have been over 220 times in the NHL, NBA and MLB combined where teams took the first three games of the series. Statistically, if every series were actually a coin-flip (or 50-50 chance for each team in every game) - the odds of a comeback and winning four in a row would show that the statistical probability of that comeback would be: 6.25% and with over 200 opportunities - there should be about 12 of these "historic" comebacks.
There aren't. In addition to the greatest comeback ever in 2004 - the other two times both happened in the NHL. The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs came back against Detroit and the 1975 Islanders performed the feat against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
If the Flyers were to comeback against the Bruins this year and make history, their comeback wouldn't be as impressive as the Islanders' 1975 comeback - but it would be pretty similar.
The NHL has assured us that this will be the year that history will be made. The Flyers are gaining momentum and the Bruins "luck" appears to be running out. The Bruins have been perfect on home ice winning all five games - if only by a total of 5 goals (2 in OT). The run at home ends tonight. The Flyers will take Game 5 with a 3-2 victory.
Tonight the fans of hockey get screwed by the Boston-Montreal rivalry - as neither team was willing to change their start time to either 7:30 or 8:00 to allow for staggered viewing or at least an extra hour of hockey.
This is a night for DVR hockey - which means to DVR both games and alternate watching about 5 minutes of hockey from Boston then 5 minutes from Montreal. If more experienced, try about 2 minutes at a time to avoid unwanted updates. Alternatively, the dual television approach can work also.
Pittsburgh has the formula for beating Montreal - DON'T OUTSHOOT THEM - and don't get to 35 shots on net. Firing the pucks on Halak from everywhere is like getting a Mogwai wet or feeding a gremlin after midnight - you're asking for trouble!
The Penguins will play a defensive and opportunistic game forcing Montreal to carry the play and take advantage of the inevitable mistakes that will come. As expected by many - the underestimation of the Canadiens is happening again and the Guru predicts that the Penguins open up a close low-scoring game in the third period to finish with a 4-1 victory.
The Showdown at Sundown. The one game tonight - Game 5 between Vancouver and Chicago - could end the series most predicted and expected would go seven games. Following up a great comeback in game 2 - Chicago convincingly took both games in Vancouver and head home to close the series out tonight.
Vancouver was at times completely out of control and unfocused. Now, with their backs against the wall - and their season on the brink - it is expected that they will regain the necessary focus and play a much more disciplined game tonight. The Blackhawks will continue the attack, but playing focused, it is expected that Vancouver will be able to hold off the Hawks enough to survive - at least for one more day.
The Montreal formula for success has been laid out and it's almost impossible for teams not to get sucked into that "trap." In trying to close out their opening round series - Washington began to just throw everything at the net - it didn't work.
Sure, unloading a barrage of shots would seem to make sense - it would seem to give the greatest chance of scoring - and maybe it will. Maybe the dam will burst and Malkin, Crosby and the Pens can put up a big number and take game 5. It's ironic though, that the more a team "dominates" the Canadiens and carries the play - the less success the team has had.
The key to success is playing the same style the Canadiens want to play: be patient, focus on defense responsibility, look to attack in transition and capitalize on opportunities.
So as much as the Canadiens must Beware of the Penguins - the Pens best beware themselves. Beware of falling into the same trap the Capitals did - the trap of believing that merely firing shots at the net is the formula for success against these Habs.
The Guru has the a ton of respect and confidence in Penguins' coach Dan Bylsma - fully expecting him to recognize the best opportunity in this game is to remain patient and wait for their chances. That belief lead to the prediction of a low scoring game (but beware, the Penguins fire power could capitalize break this open),with the Penguins taking the lead back in this series. The broken crystal ball doesn't really have a final score - but since the fans of this site demand a prediction: Penguins 3 - Montreal 0. (How's that for going out on a limb).
Great call in game 4 - let me wipe that goose egg off my face.
The domination of that game - the other way makes game 5 a lot more difficult to predict. Detroit didn't have to exert every last ounce of energy to keep the series alive. They will be ready to come out in game 5 and may be re-energized by Franzen's game for the ages.
San Jose - particularly the fan base - has to have the shakiest confidence with a 3-1 lead ever. The momentum in this series could snowball and it isn't hard to envision a 7-game scenario and we all remember how well Detroit stepped up in game 7 against Phoenix.
The Sharks know fear. The past failures have fueled their fear of failing. The fear in this game is more in San Jose's room right now than in Detroit's. The Wings may feel they accomplished more than they actually did in game 4. They won one game - and nothing will carry over.
The Shark Tank will be rocking and this will be one of the memorable games available on the Sharks DVD if their run doesn't come up short this year. Tonight, they don't come up short. Tonight they end the season and possibly career for Hall of Famer Nick Lidstrom with a 4-2 victory.
Re-focusing is what Vancouver did well in Game 5, which is why we have some hockey to watch tonight. Can they maintain that focus and hold down the Blackhawks offense which has seen back-to-back hat tricks in Vancouver?
